Marbella’s real estate market has been on a strong upward trajectory, with some industry experts predicting a 10% price increase by the end of 2025. But is this really going to happen? According to CaixaBank Research, Spain’s housing market is expected to grow by around 9% in 2025, with Marbella in particular seeing some of the most notable increases.
Here’s a breakdown of whether Marbella prices could actually rise 10% this year, and what buyers and sellers can expect.
What CaixaBank and Other Forecasts Are Saying
CaixaBank has revised its housing forecast upwards, predicting a 9% rise in home prices across Spain in 2025. This is a significant revision, indicating the strong demand and tight supply in the real estate market. In Marbella, which has always been a hotspot for foreign and luxury buyers, experts expect the increases to be even higher, especially for villas and high-end properties.
However, other sources, such as Solvia and Bankinter, predict a more moderate 4-5% increase in many areas, especially in the broader Spanish market. For luxury properties, the expected growth rate hovers between 3-5%. This suggests that while the 10% increase may be possible for specific segments in Marbella, it’s not necessarily the case across the board.
Marbella’s Price Trends: The Proof Is in the Numbers
Marbella has been outperforming many other Spanish cities in property price growth. In May 2025, the average price per square metre in Marbella reached an all-time high of €5,162, up 9.8% year on year. This puts Marbella on the path to near-10% growth, especially in the highly desirable “Golden Triangle” of Marbella, Estepona, and Benahavis.
Properties in the luxury segment, such as those along the Marbella Golden Mile, have seen even more dramatic increases. In the first quarter of 2025, asking prices in this region rose by 12.15%. So, while a 10% increase may not be uniform across all areas, parts of Marbella, particularly high-demand neighbourhoods, are already on track to hit that figure.
Why Prices Might Reach 10%
There are several factors pushing Marbella’s prices higher:
- Foreign Demand: The demand from foreign buyers, especially from the UK, Germany, and Scandinavia, remains strong. Foreign buyers now make up a significant portion of property transactions in Marbella. This demand is further boosted by the fact that Marbella is seen as a safe haven for investments.
- Low Interest Rates: While interest rates have started to rise in many countries, Spain’s rates are still relatively low. CaixaBank mentions that this allows buyers to afford more expensive properties, fuelling growth in the market.
- Limited Supply: Marbella continues to face a shortage of available land and housing. High construction costs and complex planning regulations mean fewer new developments, especially in prime locations. This scarcity makes existing properties even more valuable, driving prices upward.
- Prestige and Location: Marbella is considered one of the most prestigious areas on the Costa del Sol, making its properties even more desirable. As demand increases, so does the price, especially for luxury homes and properties with sea views.
The Headwinds to Consider
While the 10% rise seems likely, there are a few headwinds that could slow down the market:
- Affordability Challenges: As prices increase, some buyers may find themselves priced out of the market. This could eventually lead to a slowdown in price growth, particularly for middle-market properties.
- Interest Rate Changes: If interest rates rise significantly, it could make mortgages more expensive, reducing the purchasing power of buyers. This would likely slow down the market growth and prevent a 10% rise in many areas.
- Regulatory Changes: Government regulations, such as property taxes or changes to non-resident buying laws, could have an impact on the market. These factors could slow demand, especially from foreign buyers.
Will Marbella Prices Really Hit 10%?
Based on the current data and trends, Marbella’s high-demand areas are very likely to see prices increase close to 10% by the end of 2025. The luxury segment and prime real estate will likely experience the most significant growth. However, for mid-range properties and less desirable locations, a more moderate rise (around 4-6%) is expected.
If you are considering purchasing property in Marbella, it may be wise to act sooner rather than later. With a shortage of supply and continued demand, the market is only likely to become more competitive as prices rise.
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
For buyers, now may be the best time to lock in a property before prices increase further. It’s important to research local trends and get familiar with the market dynamics. Make sure to check similar properties to avoid overpaying for a home, especially in areas with higher growth.
For sellers, this is a good time to consider listing your property. With the market expected to see strong demand, sellers in prime Marbella locations may want to price their properties slightly higher to capitalise on the rising market.
Conclusion
Will Marbella prices rise 10% this year? While the broader market might not reach that number, the luxury and prime segments are likely to see near double-digit increases. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, understanding these trends and making informed decisions can help you navigate the market effectively.
For more insights and to explore available properties in Marbella, browse our listings or get in touch with one of our agents for tailored advice.